000			02711nam 2200325| 4500
001			82231
005			20190712145812.0
010			_a978-0-387-28392-0 _dcompra
090			_a82231
100			_a20190128d2005 k||y0pory50 ba
101			_aeng
102			_aUS
200			_aStatistical demography and forecasting _bDocumento eletrónico _fJuha M. Alho, Bruce D. Spencer
210			_aNew York, NY _cSpringer _d2005
215			_aXXVIII, 412 p. _cil.
225			_aSpringer Series in Statistics
300			_aColocação: Online
303			_aSustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot be solved without understanding the nature of population forecasts and their uncertainty. Similarly, the accuracy of population estimates directly affects both the distributions of formula-based government allocations to sub-national units and the apportionment of political representation. The book develops the statistical foundation for addressing such issues. Areas covered include classical mathematical demography, event history methods, multi-state methods, stochastic population forecasting, sampling and census coverage, and decision theory. The methods are illustrated with empirical applications from Europe and the U.S. For statisticians the book provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. For demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, and professionals in related fields, the book presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. To facilitate its classroom use, exercises are included. Over half of the book is readily accessible to undergraduates, but more maturity may be required to benefit fully from the complete text. Knowledge of differential and integral calculus, matrix algebra, basic probability theory, and regression analysis is assumed. Juha M. Alho is Professor of Statistics, University of Joensuu, Finland, and Bruce D. Spencer is Professor of Statistics and Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University. Both have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field.
410			_x0172-7397
606			_aPopulação _xMétodos estatísticos
606			_aDemografia _xModelos matemáticos
680			_aHB849.41
700			_aAlho _bJuha M.
701			_931646 _aSpencer _bBruce D. _4070
801			_gRPC _aPT
856			_uhttps://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-28392-7
942			_2lcc _cF _n0